I am going to try and fix some of the problems I have had with this domain (mainly Google hating my guts).
The changes have already been made but as they flow through the interwebs we will see what they break. If you come back later and there’s nothing here, you’ll know why…
Yet another in our ongoing series of Economic rambling that seeks to explain some of the academic arguments about the economy, mix in my cloudy memory of theory, and just try to say enough stupid shite to start a discussion.
One of the concepts that economic policy is based on is The Multiplier – the idea that if you pump money into the economy you get a lift from that cash, but there’s also a multiplier effect. $250 Billion goes to bail out the auto industry, but a huge chunk of this ends up being the salary of the UAW guys building the cars. In our simple model the good news is that these guys, like most good Americans, don’t bother to save one red cent (in fact, they carry credit card debt, spending beyond their means). As a result that $250 B gives the economy a second jolt – if it all rolls through you get a multiplier of 2 there, but it doesn’t stop yet hulkamaniacs, our UAW guys bought dinner at the local restaurants and so the restaurant owners and waitstaff have some extra cash to throw around, not the full $250B, just a portion – $20B, add in the bar tab, maybe $240B. Just kidding. Lets make it $25B because I’ve forgotten all real econometrics. We’re up to a $525B, or a 2.1 multiplier.
For some reason I recall that the Fed considers 4 to be about right, of course maybe my memory is terrible (I think it is but I can’t really recall), or that could be some policy wonk pulling a stat out of their keister. The problem is that trying to measure it is extraordinarily difficult and then there’s also the problem of inflation – in an economy where nobody saves, in theory it would touch everyone and you’ve done nothing but devalue the dollar. There’s also the issue of that money leaving the shores of the US and going to other countries who are not on an even trade balance with us.
So we reach a question – will the current crisis change the average American’s propensity to save, thus reducing a multiplier effect? Or will they say “Screw it, Rolexes have never been cheaper, I’m rollin’ R. Kelly style.” I have no idea, but I do know that the multiplier is a theory that the government needs us to believe to assure us that government can affect the course of the economy. I’ve never seen the multiplier used to show the damage done by a reduction in spending, maybe that was about the time the Spring Concerts were rolling at UMass, but you can use the same theory there. Ultimately big shocks create smaller waves that can encourage additional big shocks, until there’s nothing left to be lost in the markets that are dying – either by complete collapse, or being artificially propped up until the shocks subside. Other industries will be impervious to the downturn, and indeed others will thrive.
The marketing message – pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Continue to innovate and deliver value, and pray that we hit the bottom before the infrastructure begins to crack.
Shel Holtz is in town for a SNCR Event so I’m heading over to grab a drink with him at Vox. I should be there around 6:30 if traffic isn’t out of hand. Things have been crazy lately and I will be celebrating the close of my 2008 travel schedule with a touch of the scotch. Join me if you can.
In other good news, the latest Marketing Over Coffee is now posted.
I’ll be writing up the info I gathered from Dreamforce later today. My head is still spinning, that was a lot of stuff to take in over 2 days. I’ve put up some of the photos including CEO Marc Benioff, Malcolm Gladwell, and the Appy Trophy.
I also have some gadget gear updates: If you are thinking about buying an Amazon Kindle e-book reader for the holidays don’t hold back, I ordered one on November 1st to use a discount code that I had and it says it is shipping somewhere around
November 24th. If that holds by Thanksgiving it may be too late.
I also took the plunge and got a Sony PSP for gaming and movies on the plane (coach is now so small that I can’t open my laptop without being in the exit row. It completely rocks (if you are into game or UMD Movie trading drop me a line). As a result I am unloading my Onyx Nintendo DS Lite, I’m including over 30 games including Guitar Hero, a USB wireless adapter and a headset mic.
It’s in great condition and I’d prefer to give a reader a deal over going ebay. Twitter me at themshow if you are interested.
There have been a number of items in the press lately about problems with voting machines, fraud with paper ballots, and other similar topics that bring to mind the hanging chads of Florida. All of these problems are difficult to combat because of the secrecy of ballots, and this made me think:
Would you be willing to trade the privacy of your vote in exchange for transparency? If votes were listed and counted publicly it would me much harder to game the system.
At first I thought this was a bad idea but then I thought that votes are less important than donating money to political candidates and that’s widely available.
I was talking with some friends last night and we were discussing the general decline in community organizations for business people. There are many of them, groups like the Lions, Elks, Civitan, Rotary, Masons, and the Jaycees. All of these organizations still exist but I don’t see their presence the way I remember it a generation or two earlier.
I’ve been trying to figure out what has changed, and I can only come up with theories based on my own expericence. In 1997 I joined the Boston Jaycees as I was new to Boston and working as a Sales Rep before Dell completely crushed everyone selling computers to businesses. Jaycees (Junior Chamber) “gives young people between the ages of 18 and 40 the tools they need to build the bridges of success for themselves in the areas of business development, management skills, individual training, community service and international connections.”
The quote is from the US Jaycees website but it’s interesting to note the difference between National and the Local chapter. The Boston chapter did not have much interest in many of the national programs such as Gun Saftey, Agriculture, or the current “Support our troops” – the types of programs that don’t get that many votes from the People’s Repulic of Cambridge.
The Boston Chapter was on an upswing and getting close to 50 members I believe. The story that I’ve been told (which is past second-hand and may be nowhere near the truth) was that somewhere around 5 years earlier the chapter was well over 250 members. There was going to be some kind of “Taste of Boston” food event downtown and all of the money was spent and there was some sort of permiting problem. There was no event, the money was lost and the resulting rift on the board wiped out half the members immediately and within a couple of years most of the chapter was gone. Originally the chapter was designed as a feeder organization for the Chamber of Commerce and they went to their rolodexes to reboot and find some young execs to keep the chapter going as well as the “Ten Outstanding Young Leaders (TOYL)” awards that had gone on for more than 45 years and had honorees such as John F. Kennedy and Sumner Redstone.
I was involved with the Chapter for about 5 years, serving on the board and working some of the TOYL events, but ultimately I was no longer able to spend time working for the Chapter. I started working out on the 495 loop at a startup during the bubble, got married and moved to the suburbs. There was no business benefit, my social calendar was now full, and I was working directly with the Franciscan’s Hospital for Children as my charity of choice (they had a Boston Marathon Team in 2002 that I raised funds and ran for). The Chapter was over 100 members when I finished my time on the Board and I had handed the Website off to a new Vice President.
Fast forward to this year, the domain registration lapsed, and TOYL appears to be gone and there’s no presence on the web. So what happened? I saw two major splits after I left, both in the board and TOYL. One of the elections many of the VP candidates aligned with a Presidential Candidate that did not win, that crushed any chance of a smooth transition. TOYL also split, some of the organizers started a competing event (competing only in the sense that there is a limited supply of volunteers and Chapter bandwidth). The last I heard was that the final event a few years back did not turn a profit and they were unable to pay the bills.
So, what have I learned and how do these organizations need to respond to the changing competitive landscape?
Unfortunately I think the days of community professional organizations are limited. In the days when you were going to be with your employer for more than 20 years, these organizations made a lot of sense. Today when you will have a new job every 5 years and probably work in 2 or more parts of the country, if not world, these groups can’t adapt fast enough to stay focused and consistent.
Way too much… Time is at a premium. But there is no shortage of cool stuff going on:
The Red Sox are fighting it out for the American League Championship (top of the 8th right now). Interesting political stuff going on today with Colin Powell throwing his vote to Obama. Sarah Palin on Saturday Night Live – you have to love that, you know the actors can’t stand it but they need the traffic with Letterman getting the buzz with his McCain viral vids.
I’m going to a Seth Godin presentation this week in New York City, I’ve read the Tribes document that came out last week, very interesting stuff.
I’ll also be presenting at DreamForce, the Salesforce.com users conference next month in San Francisco, there’s a whole track for Marketing so there should be plenty to learn there.
Ok, top of the 8th… bases loaded…
Just an update of what’s been going on with me – after being sick AND it raining last weekend I was able to make up for lost time. I took photographs at all of my nephews and nieces games (2 soccer one football – you can check out the Sports Illustrated level lens that I rented this weekend looks like over on these Flickr shots (sorry, my contacts only).
And since the weather was good I winterized the air conditioner, mowed the lawn and made some space in the garage for some wood.
Quarter end went well, but was insanely busy as usual. Maybe I can start looking beyond politics, finance and chores to talk about some marketing stuff?
You can get a dose of some Marketing Audio on this week’s BeanCast, with yours truly on the panel:
And The M Show showed up this week, 10 minutes of action here:
Today was an interesting day, I ran through a huge range of emotion on my ride home. I started out thinking about the new Sony PSP 3000 that’s going on sale next month, which I don’t really need, but would like to check out. I listened to the back half of a NY Times podcast on religion that was quite thought provoking. Everything from how the 60’s have changed religion, to the impact that the church has on politics and the human condition (link below if you want to check it out).
I saw a squirrel trapped in an intersection and get killed by an SUV. Although my inlaws are mounting a jihad against the squirrell kingdom, I’d rather be spared grusome images during my evening commute. 10 minutes after that some crazy dude drove into the intersection paying no attention to the traffic lights. No accident resulted, but I had to wonder what the hell the guy was thinking.
At this point I switched the iPod over to Yo-Yo Ma so that I could take my mind off the insanity of the road.
The good news is that the 5 city, 5 wedding Summer tour is over, and perhaps I can get back to work and save a dollar or two.
The religion discussion:
Camp is over, but it was a great 4 days of shooting. You can check out my shots here. And then click this link to search the tag “tfttf2008me” for pictures from everyone at the session.
Thanks to Chris Marquardt for putting on a great show, if you are into photography you should check out his podcast on photography.